PRLog (Press Release) – Jun 20, 2011 – BMI believes the outlook is bright for the Mexican mining sector in 2011 and beyond. We are forecasting average annual growth of 6.43% in the value of t helicop ter technology he mining sector over the coming five years, to reach a value of US$156.6bn by 2015. There are several world-class mining projects being developed in the country, with around 740 active exploration projects also currently being undertaken.
According to the head of Camimex (Mexico's Chamber of Mines), Sergio Almazan, revenues from Mexican mining for 2010 are expected to have surpassed US$13bn, which would make mining the country's third-largest generator of revenue (after oil and remittances from abroad). Furthermore, Almazan believes that total investment in Mexican mining over the 2007-12 period will stand at more than US$21bn: a 'historical high' for the sector.
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Increases in metal production ahead
Against this propitious backdrop, we are forecasting sharp increases in metal production. We believe that overall Mexican silver production can increase by around 14% over the coming five years, boosted by output from Fresnillo's new Saucito mine. Fresnillo has estimated 2011 silver production from Saucito at 4.7mn oz in 2011, rising to 9.2mn oz by 2014. Gold production is also forecast to rise by just over 30% over the same period, as a spate of new projects come onstream, including Yamana Gold's Mercedes gold/silver project in Sonora state.
For copper, we believe that the end of the three-year long strike at Grupo Mexico's Cananea mine has now set the scene for a sharp increase in output over our forecast period to 2015. In Q111, Grupo Mexico outlined plans to increase copper output at Cananea to 450ktpa (thousand tonnes per annum) by 2015, from 150ktpa in 2011. This has led us to revise our forecasts significantly higher over the period to 2015.
The announced increase from Cananea alone will result in a threefold increase in Mexico's copper output and easily surpass existing mines' production levels. In addition, Linear Metals plans to produce 55ktpa from its La Morena mine from 2014 and Yale Resources have conducted preliminary scans at its Apache deposit, but have not released any output forecasts. Taking these dynamics into account, we forecast Mexican copper production to increase by an annual average rate of 25.1% over the forecast period, reaching 730ktpa in 2015.
We would caution that there remain certain downside risks to our metal production forecasts. Mexico's growth potential is restricted by continued violence in the country, relating to the drug trade, as well as relatively high levels of corruption and a fairly inflexible labour market. In addition, falling grades are likely to continue to restrict growth at existing mines.
Key Players
The country's largest mining concern is Grupo Mexico, which owns the massive Cananea mine, which has the largest copper reserves in the world. Other key Mexican mining companies include Altos Hornos de Mexico (AHMSA) and Industrias Penoles. BMI provides coverage of all three of these companies in the Company Monitor section at the end of this report.
Report Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis - Mexico Political SWOT - Mexico Economic SWOT - Mexico Business Environment SWOT Global Mining Outlook - Lower Production Figures But Large Projects On The Horizon - Selected Companies' Q111 Production Results - Table: Recent Attempted Acquisitions - Table: Government Intervention - Table: Other Developments Industry Trends And Developments - Overview - Regulatory Structure And Developments Key Projects - Metals - Iron Ore - Gold - Silver - Copper - Table: Mexico Copper Sector - Expansion Plans - Minerals - Coal Mining Business Environment Ratings - Americas - Table: Americas Business Environment Ratings - United States - Peru - Canada - Chile - Brazil - Argentina - Mexico Political Environment - Domestic Politics Economic Outlook - Table: Mexico - Economic Activity, 2008-2015 Industry Forecast Scenario - Metals Update - Aluminium - Copper - Gold - Lead - Nickel - Tin - Zinc - Mexico's Industry F manual trash compactor orecast - Table: Mexico's Mining Industry Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 Company Monitor - Altos Hornos de Mexico - Grupo Mexico - Industrias Penoles - Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) - Table: Developed States' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Table: Emerging Markets' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growt garbage compactor review h Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) Country Snapshot: Mexico Demographic Data - Section 1: Population - Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 - Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 - Section 2: Education And Healthcare - Table: Education, 2002-2005 - Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 - Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power - Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 - Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) - Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 Business Environment Ratings Methodology 1086274749 - Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators - Table: Weighting Of Components
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