PRLog (Press Release) – Jul 08, 2011 – BMI View: Revised and new historical data for the countries in the region confirm that our previous forecasts have played out correctly. There remains a wide spread in performance between the seven countries that comprise the region - Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama. The largest, Costa Rica, is expected to have a construction industry value of US$2.35bn in 2011 compared with Belize - the smallest - with a paltry industry value of US$0.07bn. The disparity between states is only set to grow further with the weakest performers barely changing over the forecast period and at the top, Panama's industry value will more than double by 2015 to US$5.16bn .The new historical data show that Panama has yet to overtake Costa Rica in terms of construction industry value; yet, we maintain that the country will retain significant growth potential and become the largest market in the region by 2013, and then retain this primacy in the following years.
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Major regional infrastructure developments include:
* Guatemala's liberalised electricity distribution market has attracted private interest in many of its assets, making the market the most prolific for energy mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in Central America. Emerging markets-focused infrastructure fund Actis completed the acquisition of two power distribution companies in Guatemala in April 2011. This venture follows the Colombian firm EPM's acquisition of the country's third power distribution company in October 2010. Both ventures corroborate BMI's view - expressed at the time of the EPM acquisition - that, based on macro fundamentals, there is scope for further growth in the market. * The transport and public works ministry (MOPT) of Costa Rica is planning to invest CRC250bn (US$503mn) in its national transport programme for 2033. The investment includes CRC77bn (US$154.92mn) for the ex rc helicopter market place pansion of the Canas-Liberia stretch of the Interamericana Norte highway to four lanes, and CRC26.2bn (US$52.71mn) for the 27km Bajos de Chilamate-Vuelta Kooper highway to connect the country's northern region with the Caribbean. The ministry also plans to invest CRC27bn (US$54.32mn) on the paving and repair of the national highway network in 2011 and CRC120bn (US$241.44mn) in the coming three years. * Italian energy producer Enel Green Power (EGP) has started construction work on the 50MW Chucas hydropower plant (HPP) located between the provinces of Alajuela and San Jose in Costa Rica. Once fully operational, the plant will generate around 219 gigawatt-hour (GWh) of power to serve the electricity needs of approximately 81,000 households. The project, expected to be completed in mid-2013, will increase the company's installed power capacity in the country to 105MW. * Feasibility studies will commence on a new railway project in Honduras, which if implemented will provide a significant source of value for the country's infrastructure sector in the coming years. The railway could also alter the trade dynamics in the country, as it will link the ports of Castilla and Amapala, thus allowing trade to bypass the Panama Canal. The government signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with UK company K Group Inc. in May 2011, which will see the company carry out technical feasibility studies to determine the cost and economic viability of the project. * We expect political risk in Central America to rise over the next 12 months, as electoral uncertainty aggravates existing tensions caused by gaping social divisions and spiralling levels of violence. In terms of electoral violence we believe Guatemala is most at risk, whereas Honduras faces the most serious threat of social upheaval - comparable to the uprisings being witnessed in North Africa. * We believe the plateau demonstrated by Panama and Costa Rica at the top of the table highlights the garbage compactor review rising competitiveness of these markets and disparity with the rest of the region. There is fierce competition between states to attract a limited pool of capital and expertise. As a result of increasing openness to foreign direct investment (FDI), we find a plateau of near identical scores in Industry Risks. The implication is that further structural changes to the regulatory, legal or financing environment can present a significant competitive advantage that can make the market that implements them the regional outperformer.
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