PRLog (Press Release) – Jul 22, 2011 – In the first four months of 2011, Belgian crude steel output rose 17.8% y-o-y to 2.59mn tonnes, which follows 52.6% growth to 8.09mn tonnes in 2010. In March, monthly output hit 806,000 tonnes, the highest level recorded since October 2008.
Production has improved markedly on the back of the broader regional economic recovery. Capacity utilisation rates are returning towards pre-crisis levels, matched by a rebound in export receipts and rising business confidence. Meanwhile, the outlook for consumer spending has improved somewhat, with unemployment in decline. In 2010, domestic finished steel consumption grew 27% to 3.98mn tonnes and apparent aluminium consumption was up 30% to 181,600 tonnes, with aluminium product imports rising 21% to just under 550,300 tonnes and exports growing 20% to 465,100 tonnes.
Export growth is likely to tail off due in part to base effects and also as a result of the eurozone losing momentum and German growth moderating. Germany's industrial growth is being spurred by exports to China, which are beginning to slow. As Belgium's export sector is dominated by relatively lowtechnology goods supplying downstream processors in Germany and elsewhere, the country will face increasing levels of competition in this area from emerging market exporters as they seek to move up the value chain. This will put downward pressure on Belgian metals industries. Another major threat comes from continued political uncertainty due to protracted coalition talks since the June 2010 elections, which will inevitably impact on investment.
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In terms of performance in metals end-use markets, the Belgian automotive industry has been key to the revival in Belgian steel consumption. Belgium hosts five car assembly plants, six truck manufacturers and more than 300 suppliers, with more than 96% of output dedicated to export markets. However, with the end of scrappage schemes in most countries in Europe, sales fell back to lower levels from H210, ending the short-term increase created by incentive packages and making the market outlook bleak. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), European demand for new cars in the first four months of 2011 fell 2.7% y-o-y. This in turn will limit domestic consumption and BMI forecasts finished steel consumption growth slowing to 3.8% in 2011 from 26.9% in 2010, while aluminium consumption growth is expected to decline to 4.9% from 30.0%.
We continue to highlight that growth in steel and aluminium production will not return to pre-crisis levels in the short term, which will be reflected in the performance of the steel and aluminium sectors. BMI believes it will be 2015 at the earliest trash bins before crude steel output returns to anywhere near p Kenmore Bisque 15 inchi re-recession levels, if capacity is not permanently cut in the mean time. The future of the three plants that were under control of the Russian-Belgian joint venture (JV) Steel Invest and Finance will also face major difficulties, although they are less dependent on the automotive industry and are expected to see output recover more quickly than at the ArcelorMittal plants. They have either been mothballed or are operating at 50-70% capacity since the recession struck in 2008. The situation looks more promising now that two of the plants have bought out by the Russian partner NLMK, while a shareholder in the Belgian partner Duferco has taken control of the other.
Report Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis - Belgium Metal Industry SWOT - Belgium Political SWOT - Belgium Economic SWOT Global Market Overview - Steel Forecast - Steel to Average US$580/tonne In 2011 - BMI Steel Forecast - Steel Prices - Cost Push On The Supply Side - Few Supply Constraints In Sight, For Now Commodities Forecast - Commodity Strategy - Metals Update - Aluminium - Copper - Gold - Lead - Nickel - Tin&# rc helicopter market place 13; - Zinc Regional Overview Forecast Scenario - Table: Belgium Metals Industry P manual trash compactor roduction And Trade ('000 tonnes unless stated), 2008-2015 - Macroeconomic Outlook - Belgium - Economic Activity Competitive Landscape Company Profiles - ArcelorMittal - Steel Invest and Finance (Duferco) - Corus - Alcoa Global Assumptions, Q311 - Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 - Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) - Developed States - Table: Developed States' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Emerging Markets - Table: Emerging Markets' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) - Consensus Forecasts - Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) Country Snapshot: Belgium Demographic Data - Section 1: Population - Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 - Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 - Section 2: Education and Healthcare - Table: Education, 2002-2005 - Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 - Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power - Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 - Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) - Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 BMI Methodology - How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts - Cross Checks
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